Perspectivas Agro-pecuárias 2005-2012

This report is based on the information available at the end of November 2005. Therefore it does not take into account the recent decisions adopted in the framework of the Doha Development Round of trade negotiations in Hong-Kong in December 2005 and the conclusions of the Council of the European Union from December 2005 on the 2007-2013 financial perspectives. Nor does it take into account the effects of the Avian influenza on the meat markets or the effects of the recently adopted reform of the sugar CMO. The analysis covers the period between 2005 and 2012.

Poultry

Poultry production gradually recovered from the impact of avian flu in the Netherlands during spring 2003 and reached 11 mio t in 2004. The medium-term outlook for poultry production remains relatively positive as competitive prices with respect to other meats, strong consumer preference and increased use in food preparations should continue to play in favour of poultry. Per capita consumption is projected to increase from around 23 kg/year in 2004 to about 24.6 kg/year by 2012, with a stronger growth in the new Member States, where it should benefit from a growing consumer preference. It should be acknowledged that these relatively positive projections for the poultry market do not take into account any effects of the Avian influenza since December 2005 nor the potential dramatic impact that an Avian influenza outbreak in the EU could have on the EU meat markets, with disrupted production and consumptions patterns, trade flows and a pronounced effect on market prices. Extra-EU-25 poultry exports are projected to stagnate in line with strong competition on the world markets by low cost producers and unfavourable US$/€ and Brazilian Real/€ exchange rates. Poultry imports are assumed to resume growing over the longer term, with increased imports of frozen fillets and mainly cooked and processed poultry meat.

Consumption eggs

The prospects for the EU egg production appear moderately positive. Like poultry, egg production recovered from the avian flu in the Netherlands in 2003. Production of eggs reached 6.3 mio t in 2004 and is expected to further increase to 6.7 mio t in 2012 benefiting from increasing demand as well as lower feed costs particularly in the first half of the projection period. Consumption would expand from 6.2 mio t in 2004 to 6.5 mio t in 2012. Per capita consumption would increase from 13.5 kg/capita in 2004 to 13.9 kg/capita in 2012. Exports would develop between 0.2 and 0.3 mio t over the medium term.

Fonte: European Commission for Agriculture